The Works

| 2002 |

Voting in Goa dips, as political instability rises 

If democracy reflects the will of the people, and if this will is determined by those who exercise their franchise, then Goa’s democracy has run into rough weather in recent times.

Statistics have indicated in the affirmative, in an exclusive study by Herald which compares the voter turn-out of the last four assembly polls, when Goa was elevated into a 40-constituency state.

The study reveals that attendance of voters during the 1999 and the 2002 elections have steadily dropped in comparison with the two assembly elections in 1989 and 1994.

And it may be more than just a coincidence that the fluctuating turn-out in 1999 and 2002 can be juxtaposed with the frequency of changes in governance — there have been as many as six chief ministers between 1998 and 2000.

The political turmoil from 1998 onwards seems to have influenced a significant number of voters to abstain from the 1999 elections. The average turn-out in the State during the last four elections were 1989 (72.52%), 1994 (71.18%), 1999 (65.14%) and 2002 (67.83%).

In fact, figures in the 1999 polls even slipped below the overall turn-out (68.94%) in the four polls. Such was the trend that turn-out in 36 of the 40 constituencies dropped sharply in the 1999 elections, in comparison with the 1994 polls.

The 2002 polls too haven’t reached to the figures in the 1989 and 1994 polls, thereby indicating the general mood of the electorate which has been triggered by political events in the latter half of the 90‘s.

But on the positive side, the electorate in Goa has shown a hint of interest in the 2002 polls, as the voter turn-out raised from 65.14% in 1999 to 67.83% in 2002.

This trend was particularly noticeble in the Panjim constituency, where only 56.41% participated in the 1999 elections. The turn-out however lept to 65.27% in the 2002 polls.

Does this indicate that voters in Goa are slowly beginning to accept political instability as a way of life in the State? Or have they become aware of the power of the ballot to determine the outcome of those who intend to govern the state.

A comparison with the performance of the two districts indicates that in all four polls, voters in North Goa have been more frequent in exercising their franchise than their counterparts in South Goa (see graph).

While the 1989 and the 1994 polls have been proportionally balanced among the two districts, the 1999 polls seems to have affected a larger number of voters in South Goa. In comparison with the North Goa, voter turn-out in South Goa took a bigger dip in the ‘99 polls, before cimbing up in the 2002 polls.

NORTH GOA: Consisting of 19 constituencies, North Goa has witnessed a consistently high overall voter turn-out (70.64%) since 1989, largely due to the voters in the talukas of Pernem, Bicholim and Sattari — the average turn-out in these three areas always exceeding 70%.

The most successful constituency in the district in terms of turn-out in the four polls has been Poriem, with an overall average of 77.67%. Incidentally, this constituency has been most stable with voters reposing their faith in Pratapsing Rane in all the four polls.

In contrast, the lowest figures in the four polls have been recorded by the Panjim constituency (62.05%), closely followed by the next city-constituency of Mapusa (63.75%).

According to some political analysts, the lower turn-out in cities such as Panjim and Mapusa only reflects the metropolitan trend of the voters, which makes them shy away from polls. Incidentally in South Goa, Margao, Mormugao and Vasco too suffer from a similar syndrome.

In fact, statistics reveal that the talukas of Bardez and Tiswadi have not particularly faired too well, with seven of the 12 constituencies reaching an overall figure ranging in the 60’s per 100 voters.

Of these two talukas, the Saligao constituency has generated the highest overall turn-out of 72.47% in the four polls. Like Poriem, Saligao constituency has also returned the same representative, Dr Wilfred de Souza, in the past four elections.

In Tiswadi taluka, St Andre has been the only constituency to have recorded an overall voter turn-out (71.74%) which has exceeded the 70 mark.

SOUTH GOA: The average voter turn-out in the four assembly polls in South Goa has been 67.48%, a shade lower than the overall 68.94% turn-out in the State.

The Sanguem taluka — which consists of the constituencies of Sanguem and Sanvordem — has indicated a trend which is unsual among other talukas in the State.

While voter turn-out in all other talukas dropped in the 1999 polls only to pick up in the 2002 polls, the two constituencies in Sanguem continued their downward trend even in the 2002 polls. In the four polls, Sanguem constituency recorded averages of 76.86%, 74.9%, 68.77% and 65.17%, while Sanvordem constituency registered the averages of 72.71%, 71.54%, 66.88% and 62.15%.

Of all constituencies, Poinguinim has least number of voters in the State, but the constituency can boast of the highest voter turn-out in two of the last four assembly polls.

With an average voter turn-out of 81.08%, the electorate in Poinguinim constituency has easily been most prompt in exercising their franchise during the past four elections.

But this task has not been simple, given the geographic location of the constituency. Most of the villages are located in remote areas, surrounded by forests and hills. The poor transportation and communication facilities has also made it difficult for voters to go to the polling stations.

“Since majority of the voters are poor, they are very often bribed in large numbers. This attracts them to vote,” suggests Urmila R Lolyenkar, Chief of Jagruti Mahila Mandal at Mashem.

Jairam P Gaonkar, Headmaster of Nirakar Vidyalaya at Mashem, however gives a political touch to justify the large turn-out in Poinguinim, despite the inhospitable conditions.

“More voters in Poinguinim constituency exercise their franchise because of efforts put in by workers along with the candidate, who make the people aware of their right to vote,” opines Gaonkar.

Of interest has been the fact that the highest ever turn-out in the State since 1989 has been in Poinguinim constituency (87.84%).

Incidentally, this figure was recorded in the 1999 polls — a trend which went diametrically opposite to the general slump in the overall turn-out in the ‘99 polls.

Closely trailing Poinguinim in high voter turn-out has been the Shiroda constituency in Ponda taluka.

Like Poriem and Saligao in North Goa, the large number of voters in the past four polls in Shiroda (77.28%) may be closely linked to the success of Subhash Shirodkar, who has represented Shiroda all four times.

Incidentally, statistics reveal that Ponda constituency is the only segment in the Ponda taluka which has consistently returned a voter turn-out in the mid 60s. The other three constituencies — Priol, Marcaim and Shiroda — have fared much better, all of them exceeding 71% in all four polls.

Like the Ponda assembly segment, voters in both constituencies of Mormugao taluka seem most reluctant to exercise their franchise.

For the past four assembly elections, there has been an average turn-out of only 56.33% in Mormugao constitiency, the lowest in the State.

Incidentally, Mormugao constituency had the highest number of voters since 1989 elections. This record was however broken by the Ponda constituency in the 2002 elections.

Similarly, Mormugao’s sister constituency of Vasco has also been indifferent to the polls, with an average turn-out of 57.66%, the second lowest in the State.

In fact, the lowest ever turn-out in the State in the four polls goes to Vasco, when only 52.03% of the electorate cast their votes in the 1999 polls.

Perhaps, one of the main reasons for the low turn-out in both constituencies in the Mormugao taluka has been the large number of daily wages workers like labourers who are employed with private contractors.

A sizeable number of these voters prefer to work to make a living rather then to stand in a queue to cast their vote as they feel that no matter who is elected to power it really does not matter at all to them.

The low voter turn-out seems to have also reflected on the outcome of the political instability in the two constituencies. In Vasco, none of the MLAs have been re-elected since 1989, while the Sheikh-Vaz tussle has been the hallmark of the Mormugao elections. Shaikh Hassan won in 1989, but lost to John Manuel Vaz in 1994. Shaikh Hassan re-captured the seat in 1999, but lost to John Manuel’s son Karl in 2002.

Another constituency which has recorded consistent low figures has been that of Margao, with an average of 59.19% in the past four polls.

The three metropolitan constituencies of Margao, Vasco and Mormugao are largely responsible for the dip in voter figures in South Goa.

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